Chapter 1. Threat Modeling and Risk Management

Since this book is about building secure Linux Internet servers from the ground up, you're probably expecting system-hardening procedures, guidelines for configuring applications securely, and other very specific and low-level information. And indeed, subsequent chapters contain a great deal of this.

But what, really, are we hardening against? The answer to that question is different from system to system and network to network, and in all cases, it changes over time. It's also more complicated than most people realize. In short, threat analysis is a moving target.

Far from a reason to avoid the question altogether, this means that threat modeling is an absolutely essential first step (a recurring step, actually) in securing a system or a network. Most people acknowledge that a sufficiently skilled and determined attacker^[1] can compromise almost any system, even if you've carefully considered and planned against likely attack-vectors. It therefore follows that if you don't plan against even the most plausible and likely threats to a given system's security, that system will be particularly vulnerable.

^[1] As an abstraction, the "sufficiently determined attacker" (someone theoretically able to compromise any system on any network, outrun bullets, etc.) has a special place in the imaginations and nightmares of security professionals. On the one hand, in practice such people are rare: just like "physical world" criminals, many if not most people who risk the legal and social consequences of committing electronic crimes are stupid and predictable. The most likely attackers therefore tend to be relatively easy to keep out. On the other hand, if you are targeted by a skilled and highly motivated attacker, especially one with "insider" knowledge or access, your only hope is to have considered the worst and not just the most likely threats.

This chapter offers some simple methods for threat modeling and risk management, with real-life examples of many common threats and their consequences. The techniques covered should give enough detail about evaluating security risks to lend context, focus, and the proper air of urgency to the tools and techniques the rest of the book covers. At the very least, I hope it will help you to think about network security threats in a logical and organized way.